Announcer: Would you like an opinion on a financial matter you're dealing with? Whether it's about retirement, investments, taxes, or 401(k)s, Scott Hanson and Pat McClain would like to help you by answering your call. To join Allworth's Money Matters, call now at 833-99WORTH. That's 833-99 W-O-R-T-H.

Scott H: Welcome to Allworth's Money Matters. Scott Hanson...

Pat: Pat McClain.

Scott H: Glad you are with us today as we talk about financial matters. Both myself, my cohost, we are both financial advisors, certified financial planner, chartered financial consultant. Spend our weekdays helping people like yourself get prepared for their financial futures, and we broadcast here on the weekends. We record during the week and broad on the weekends to help you make wiser choices with your finances. And, that's what we do.

Pat: That's what we do. That's why we're here.

Scott H: It's pretty exciting stuff.

Pat: Yeah, everyone needs a purpose, and that's ours.

Scott H: Is that right?

Pat: Yeah. I don't know if everyone needs... I think life is better with purpose.

Scott H: I think you do need a purpose.

Pat: I think life is better with purpose than it is without. But you could biologically live without purpose.

Scott H: Well, maybe your purpose would just be to eat.

Pat: Eat. Well, that might be one of the Maslow's hierarchy of needs. But this is a...

Scott H: For whatever reason the other day, I was thinking about that movie "Castaway," Wilson...

Pat: With Tom Hanks and...

Scott H: Yeah, I would not do well on an island by myself. I'm very much one that needs to be [inaudible 00:01:30], you know. Out of all the movies you could remember. Just the other day, I was reflecting. Someone said something about Wilson, and I started thinking about it, and I thought, of all things that happened in my life, that would have to be one of the worst, to be all alone on an island.

Pat: Oh, my. Your life is good. This is what we ponder...

Scott H: I was pondering that.

Pat: ...in the brains of Scott Hanson. "I wonder what it would be like if I was on a deserted island myself with a volleyball."

Scott H: Maybe I was in a moment I was trying to be grateful, a list of gratitude of things that didn't happen to me. They're infinite. You know, you can be grateful about anything.

Pat: I tell my kids, "Come up with 10 a day, 10 things that never happened to you that you're happy for."

Scott H: Yeah, a meteor didn't strike me today. Isn't that amazing?

Pat: I'm so grateful. But this is a financial show, and already, we digress. And today, we're gonna actually be joined by our chief investment officer, Mr. Andy Stout, and he's...

Scott H: He's got all the answers for us.

Pat: If you are a long-time listener, or even a short-time listener of this show, you will, again, enjoy his musings on the market and the Federal Reserve. And then we will be taking your calls, as we always do, with your financial questions, at 833-99Worth. That's 833-999-6784.

Scott H: Yeah, pretty exciting. We got a good show for you. We think we have a good show.

Pat: Yeah, we'll see.

Scott H: And if we think it's good, then...

Pat: But we don't know whether we have a good show or not. We have some good calls lined up. We've got a good guest. Hopefully, it'll be a good show.

Scott H: Well, and it's feeling like this December is not gonna end up being a great December in the financial markets, based upon this week, Thursday in particular.

Pat: Oh, rough, rough, rough, rough, rough. Yes. And that's not a dog's voice. It is rough, R-O-U-G-H.

Scott H: You think you're a furry?

Pat: I don't know.

Scott H: Do you identify as a furry?

Pat: No, because...

Scott H: Are you one of those?

Pat: When I kept saying, "Rough, rough," I thought, "This is what a dog voice would make." But, you know, I would. I wanna talk a little bit more... Ah, we can't talk about this crypto thing anymore. It's everywhere. It's ending exactly as I...we had talked about over a year ago how it's going to end. It will continue...you'll see more. You'll see Binance...

Scott H: I gotta tell you, though, when you look at the Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX, I mean, is he...I think maybe worse than Bernie Madoff in his scheming.

Pat: That's a pretty big indictment.

Scott H: I know it is. At least Bernie Madoff stole from rich people. This guy is stealing from every-day person.

Pat: Oh. That's an ex...

Scott H: Over a million customers had their money confiscated, put in money, and "By the time I get it, nobody's going to [inaudible 00:04:36]."

Pat: He knows exactly what he did.

Scott H: You know, they shut down all the withdrawals, closed the bank, essentially. He sent a note to some Bahamian official to say, "Hey, I'll open this up for those in the Bahamas." Opened the withdrawal window back up, and like 150 million bucks was taken out of FTX and transferred to locals in the Bahamas.

Pat: To curry favor with the local authorities.

Scott H: Yes, yes. Of course, he's in jail now, no bail in the...

Pat: Right now in the Bahamas.

Scott H: In the Bahamian jail, which apparently has got rats and maggots and everything else, not quite like the U.S.

Pat: All right. Well, he moved there for a reason. He wanted to get out of the purview of the federal government in the United States. So...

Scott H: I think it will be...and we won't talk too much about it, because every week, we talk about it. But I find it extremely fascinating. There's an attorney in Florida who's got a lawsuit against a lot of celebs and athletes who were endorsers behind this. So you look at Tom Brady.

Pat: Yes. Well, that would make sense.

Scott H: Like, he and his wife are both endorsers. And what his claim is, these were unregistered securities.

Pat: That would make sense.

Scott H: Because it was securities that they were promoting.

Pat: And they did not disclose in their endorsements that they were...

Scott H: That they're paid endorsers.

Pat: ...paid endorsers.

Scott H: Same with that Kevin O'Leary. [inaudible 00:05:56] the "Shark Tank." [crosstalk 00:05:57] so wonderful right now. Mr. Wonderful.

Pat: Don't you' feel a little bad, you're a promoter of this? I'd feel bad if I called myself Mr. Wonderful.

Scott H: You wouldn't have promoted that.

Pat: Oh, of course not. Have you heard me on this show? It's...

Scott H: Look, I could forgive a Tom Brady or a Matt Damon. They're not in this industry. You're on "Shark Tank." Your job is to vet different companies. And he vets, like, this scam of a company, gets $1 million in cash plus another $15 million or so in FTX tokens, or whatever they gave him, piece of the company or something like that.

Pat: And why stop there? If you're printing your own money, why stop at $15 million? Why didn't we do $30 million or $50 million? If I'm printing my own money...

Scott H: And I wonder if there's gonna be clawback for some of these people to...

Pat: Oh, you bet.

Scott H: Is Mr. Wonderful gonna have to give his million bucks back?

Pat: Well, if he got it out. But you'll see all those politicians, there will be clawbacks from...all kinds of clawbacks.

Scott H: If your next-door neighbor got paid and some guy driving down the...

Pat:: The money that you stole?

Scott H: Yeah. "Hey, you know, give this guy some money. He's gonna do something..." And he knew. And whether he knew or not, that suddenly, it was a scam.

Pat: Yeah. Well, that was [crosstalk 00:07:02].

Scott H: Did you go to your neighbor and say, "Hey man, you just got a little spiff for turning me on to a crook. At least give me the spiff money you got."

Pat: Yeah, that's how it works with the Madoffs.

Scott H: That's exactly how it works. Anyway.

Pat: Well, [inaudible 00:07:14]. You know what's interesting is these guys from this other...the biggest [inaudible 00:07:18] Binance. They call him JZ, or CZ.

Scott H: Not JZ. JZ. CZ, not JZ.

Pat: JZ, Kanye. Yeah.

Scott H: Now, which one was it?

Pat: [inaudible 00:07:33]. What's his name? CZ, Chengpeng. Not to...

Scott H: The guy who runs Binance.

Pat: The guy that runs Binance. Comes out and says, "We've got dollar-to-dollar backing on all our deposits." Which, it didn't mean anything. You mean, do you have one U.S...

Scott H: You didn't loan one dollar out?

Pat: Yeah.

Scott H: So how are you making money?

Pat: Yeah, how does your bank or exchange work if you're not putting [crosstalk 00:07:58]?

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:07:58].

Pat: No one has 100% reserves.

Scott H: Not a bank.

Pat: That's why you have the FDIC, to protect. Because no one has 100% reserve. The business model of an exchange doesn't work with that. He says he got 100%. Can't prove it, got it. Which, by the way, if you're running a Ponzi, the first thing you gotta do is demonstrate that you're not afraid. And you would say [crosstalk 00:08:25].

Scott H: "Going to Washington..."

Pat: "We got 100% reserves."

Scott H: They're also looking at maybe it was violated campaign finance laws. Because it looks like they loaned the employees money to go make political contributions.

Pat: Oh, that is the least of their worries. Trust me.

Scott H: Not if you're one of the employees. It'll be interesting to see how deep this goes.

Pat: Good point, good point.

Scott H: Bernie Madoff...it was Bernie...did anyone else go to prison? I don't know.

Pat: Yeah, yeah, his CFO.

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:08:54]. Not very many.

Pat: His CFO...

Scott H: I think you'll see a whole line of people.

Pat: ...his chief compliance officer. [crosstalk 00:08:58] than three.

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:08:58]. There will be more here.

Pat: Yeah. It was a little bit more forgiving back then, as well. Bernie was the first of the big Ponzis.

Scott H: Well no, Mr. Ponzi was the first of the big Ponzis.

Pat: Oh, that's a great point. Charles Ponzi was the first Ponzi. [inaudible 00:09:14].

Scott H: I started reading a book about Ponzi. I lost interest [inaudible 00:0917].

Pat: Okay. Well, anyway, let's go to Andy.

Scott H: Yeah. So, we got Andy Stout is joining us. Andy is our chief investment officer here at Allworth. And Andy, thanks for taking a few moments to chat with us.

Andy: Absolutely. Happy to be here.

Scott H: Yeah, what the heck's going on? I mean, Wednesday, the feds put another rate hike in, half a percentage point, and looks like the markets aren't happy. So, what's changed?

Andy: Well, nothing has really much changed, but the data that we got today certainly emphasizes that what the fed is planning to do puts the economy at risk of a recession. I mean, if you look at what happened yesterday, with the fed raising rates and then...

Scott H: On Wednesday.

Andy: ...they were going to keep rates higher... Yeah, on Wednesday. I'm sorry. [inaudible 00:10:00] keep rates higher for longer. What you're going to see is that's going to slow down the economy. And then the data that came out Thursday, we had retail sales, which showed the consumer spending declined in the month of November. But at the same time, we saw the jobless claims coming really strong, so that put the fed in a tough situation. So they have weakening data, but a strong job market, and the fed is really worried about the strong job market.

Pat: Hey, and Andy, do they ever talk about participation rates, or just the unemployment numbers?

Andy: They look at a whole suite of data, participation rates mentioned many times. When you listen to Chair Powell, he does talk about how it is a lower participation rate, and he often compares that to...or resets, I should say, what the unemployment rate would be, how do we have the same participation rate prior to COVID. And obviously, the participation rates, you know, lower than where it is right now, are lower than where we were then because people have essentially dropped out of the labor force, and a lot of those jobs aren't coming back.

Pat: Got it. And I had one other question for you. The fed talked about actually continuing to raise interest rates for the rest of the year, but then they indicated that two to three years out that they would start lowering them again. Did I miss something there?

Andy: Yeah. No, so that's what the fed does. Every quarter, they do something, or they publish something called the dot plot, which is basically where each fed member thinks the fed funds rate should be or will be at the end of a calendar year. And when we look at the dot plot that the fed just published here for the December meeting, what it shows, it shows that the fed plans on having the fed funds rate...that's the interest rate that they hike, the short-term interest rate that they hike. They show that being three quarters higher than where it is right now, so, at the end of next year. And in 2024, that's when it drops. So they're showing, basically, about a percent, a full percentage point of rate cuts. So, in other words, they're saying, "Hey, the economy is going to be slowing down." And if you look under the hood in some of the details, it's almost as if they're predicting every session.

Scott H: I think...I've read somewhere that there's several senior fed officials that are predicting a recession next year.

Andy: Yeah, actually, within that dot plot release, they also do their economic projections. And a couple of them did pencil in negative GDP growth. But even the ones who didn't pencil in negative GDP growth for next year, they all showed the unemployment rate being higher. The unemployment rate, from where it is right now at 3.7 %, getting to where they think it will be, we've never had that sort of increase without a recession. Now, I don't wanna sound all doom and gloom, though, you know, because the world is not lost. Even if there is a recession, we'll get through it. We've gotten through these before. It's not fun during the process, but we're certainly positioned from an economic standpoint to where, you know, if we do have a slowdown, just like we have every other single time, we will be able to recover, and a lot stronger than ever.

Pat: Well, could we be in a recession right now?

Andy: Seems unlikely. I mean, if you think about what the fed looks at in terms of recessions, you know, it's not just GDP and whatever, you know, the two consecutive quarters...I mean, if that was actual the definition, we would have had one early in this year. But that's not actually what the NBER looks like. That's the recession dating body here in the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research. They do look at retail sales, which [inaudible 00:13:33] this month, but they also look at a lot of other things. They look at the level of employment, they look at the unemployment rate, they look at industrial production, and when we look at all of these together, the weight of the evidence still shows economic growth, currently.

Pat: Okay. But you could be...

Andy: So I don't think we're in one yet, but the risks are rising.

Pat: You could be out of a recession by the time you knew you were in one, though, because it's a lagging indicator, correct?

Andy: Well, the NBER, when they tell you you're in a recession, yeah, they wait a while to make sure that we are actually in one. They wait, honestly, about like 17 months before saying [inaudible 00:14:12] recession [inaudible 00:14:12]. And so yes, we could easily be out of one, on average, if the recession lasts shorter than 17 months.

Scott H: The question is, for the average person, does it really matter whether we're in a technical recession or slow growth or... I think, for most people, it's like higher rates, both negative and positive. A positive for a saver because you can get a higher rate. Obviously, negative, particularly if you wanna by buying a new home right now or move up to your next house with interest rates higher. But yeah, that's a great point, is, like, for the average, hard-working American...I mean, unless they lose their job. And let's say we're not in a recession and you get fired. I mean, that's pretty much a recession for you. Well, most certainly...

Andy: Well, that might be like a depression for you, at that point.

Pat: Yeah, it might be.

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:14:57]. But obviously, the inflation, you know, it's harmful to most.

Andy: Yeah, inflation, it eats away at people's savings. If you look at what the average person has been able to save up, right now, on average, they have about another 6, 12 months of savings built up, but the higher inflation, obviously, it's going to eat into that. Fortunately, we are seeing inflation come down. I mean, we're well off our peak from June. We were at, what, 9.1% . Now we're 7.1%, currently, so certainly moved a lot lower. And then we'll probably continue to move lower, but it's probably not getting to that magic 2% level that the Federal Reserve wants to see, for quite some time, for a variety of reasons.

Pat: So, Andy, when you just said that the average American...what did you say how much savings they have?

Andy: About 6 to 12 months' worth.

Pat: And what was that, pre-pandemic?

Andy: That's a good question. I haven't seen any statistics to show what that would be. But if you look at the savings rate, in general, it's been a lot higher the past few years. And a big reason of that is because of all the federal subsidies.

Pat: Wait, really?

Andy: So that's really been the big driver for people building up their savings.

Pat: Didn't they just do this inflation reduction by giving more money to people? Isn't that the Inflation Reduction Act?

Scott H: All right, [inaudible 00:16:24].

Andy: Yes, it's kind of a misleading name because the Inflation Reduction Act will actually lead to more inflation.

Pat: Exactly. We appreciate that. Andy, thanks for joining us. As always, appreciate you being part of the Allworth team.

Scott H: This too shall pass.

Pat: It will.

Scott H: Regardless of where this ends before we... the markets will continue. We will hit highs again on the... I always like to reflect back. I started in this industry in June of 1990. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly 2,600. It's 30,000-some-odd today. Thirty-some-odd-thousand, right? So lots of Dow bad times over that period. It's up and down. Anyway. We're gonna take some calls here at Allworth. We're in California talking with Scott. Scott, you're with Allworth's Money Matters.

Scott: Hey guys, thanks for taking my call.

Scott H: Yeah.

Scott: So, I'm doing a year-end financial review, as I'm sure many, or at least some of your listeners, are. And I two, hopefully, quick questions for you guys.

Scott H: Sure.

Pat: Fire away.

Scott: All right. So, first question, I have some stock in a public company that went public in early 2021. It was an equity award, so I didn't pay anything out of pocket for it. But as you can probably imagine, it's worth quite a bit less today than it was when it vested in late 2021. If I sold it now, I could lock in a decently sized loss, $3,000 of which I could count towards my 2022 taxes if I do it toward the end of the year, and then carry the balance of the loss forward.

Scott H: Do you still work for the company?

Scott: I do not.

Pat: And what's your basis in the stock?

Scott: Oh, I think at the time it vested...well, if I sold it now, it would be about a $37,000 loss. [crosstalk 00:18:19].

Scott H: Okay. Do you have other capital gains to offset this year?

Scott: Not this year, no.

Scott H: Do you wanna get rid of this stock?

Scott: So, generally speaking, I don't like owning individual stocks, and this is the only individual stock I have. But [crosstalk 00:18:36]...

Scott H: Why didn't you sell it... Well, never mind. It's irrelevant now.

Scott: No, I should have, that's kinda where I [crosstalk 00:18:42].

Scott H: You know what, though? Next time you're contemplating something, reflect back on 2022 and this experience, because it'll help you.

Pat: So, Scott, is there...so I guess the question is, "Do I take the loss? But I don't wanna take the loss, because I think the stock's gonna recover. Or do I split the difference and take half the loss?" But the stock may or may not recover, understand that.

Scott H: It doesn't mean he's gonna spend the money if he sells the stock. If it's "I'm gonna sell the stock and go buy a brand-new Porsche," then keep the stock, right? If it's "I'm gonna sell it and reposition those dollars for other long-term investments..." but maybe it's...

Scott: Which is what I would do, yeah.

Pat: Or maybe it's in a sector that's really, really off. No, this is the point of the conversation, Scott...

Scott H: It's probably...it might be oversold.

Pat: Maybe it's the sector that... So, oftentimes, like this in black or white, sometimes it can be gray. So, if I feel particularly bullish on a particular sector that's actually going through a rough time, what I'll do is I'll buy a stand-in security to that, right? So, you take this company, and then you look at its biggest competitor, I assume [crosstalk 00:19:55].

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:19:57]. This is not what you do on a regular basis.

Pat: That is...well, it's rare.

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:20:00] long time, okay. Here's what I'd do, I'd buy a stand-in security. It's rare.

Pat: But we do it...

Scott H: Or an ETF.

Pat: Correct. We do it all the time with either direct indexing or tax loss harvesting. This is what you do. You know, you sell the S&P 500...

Scott: Yeah, [crosstalk 00:20:17].

Scott H: ...you buy the S&P 490. Well, not quite that [crosstalk 00:20:22].

Scott: It's the tech industry, so it's off more than the broader market, and it's a company that's heavily into advertising, which has obviously been hit pretty hard right now. So, you know, it's off 60%, 70% from where it was, first the broader market, which is down maybe 20%.

Pat: How do you feel about the sector?

Scott: I mean, I feel like it'll come back [inaudible 00:20:43] possible. Like, I've thought about selling, locking into tax loss and buying it back in 31 days so I can avoid the loss sale, and then holding it again.

Pat: Well, I love the idea of actually taking the loss, from a tax standpoint.

Scott: Okay, that's kind of...it feels [crosstalk 00:21:02].

Scott H: If you don't wanna get it, what you could do...because companies can move quickly, right? So, sell this. The same day, go buy an ETF of that sector. Thirty-one days later, sell the ETF, take those proceeds and repurchase the stock.

Pat: Or not, depending on whether it had a huge drive-up in that 31 days, and maybe you're better off actually continuing to own the ETF, whether you are the individual security. That's an option. That is an option. Or maybe you split the difference. You sell half of it...

Scott H: And you move on.

Pat: You sell half of it and move on to a different investment. And then you do that technique with one half, or you sell all of it and move on. How much more of this do you own...is this all you own of this particular stock?

Scott: Yes.

Pat: How old are you?

Scott: Yes. Yeah, I think [crosstalk 00:21:52].

Scott H: Wait a minute, his name's Scott, so I predict he's somewhere between age 48 and 64.

Scott: I'm gonna tell my mom that when I see her.

Scott H: How old are you?

Scott: I'm 34. I'm 34.

Scott H: Oh, what happened? Almost every Scott [crosstalk 00:22:08] old.

Pat: Your name should be Kyle or Trevor.

Scott H: Yeah, come on. Scott.

Scott: I'll ask my mom to get back to you guys on that.

Pat: That's hilarious. Okay.

Scott H: Thirty-four.

Pat: You're 34. You know what? I know what I would do. I'd take the loss and move on.

Scott H: Yeah.

Pat: I'd take the loss and move on.

Scott: Yeah.

Pat: Yeah. The only reason you own that stock is because the company gave it to you while you worked there. Yeah. And even then, when you got it, you're like, "Should I sell this?" and you're like, "It's doing so well. I'm just gonna hang on to it." Then it wasn't doing well, and was like, "Well, I'll wait till it recovers," and now you're like, "It's the end of the year..." All right, that was your first question. You've got one more, you said.

Scott: One more, yeah. So, as you might have gleaned, I've bounced around jobs lately, and I haven't been rolling over my 401(k)s as I've moved. So right now, I've got four 401(k)s at three different financial institutions. My current one is at Vanguard, and they're telling me if I wanna roll over and combine all my old 401(k)s into my current 401(k), I need to have physical checks mailed from the other financial institutions to myself, then I have to send those on to Vanguard, and the whole thing can take two to three weeks, during which I would be totally out of the market.

Pat: Yeah, yeah. Well, you can do it another way. Yeah, I'd be okay with that.

Scott H: That's usually how they do it. They cash them out.

Pat: Yeah, I would...in fact, not only that, what happens is if you do that now, the check will be payable to Vanguard, not you. And then you're just gonna forward it to them. But the reason you wanna do this is so that you can do either a non-deductible IRA contribution, depending upon your income, or a deductible, or non-deductible IRA contribution, then convert it to a Roth IRA. And you don't wanna do that...

Scott: Yeah, we [crosstalk 00:23:55] the third.

Pat: What's that?

Scott: Yeah, we do the third. We do the [inaudible 00:24:00] Roth IRA.

Pat: Okay. Yeah, so move all of this stuff in...you don't wanna move it into your own IRA is the point, because it would affect [crosstalk 00:24:07].

Scott H: Have it all on your current 401(k).

Pat: Have it all on your current 401(k). So yes, you wanna do that.

Scott: Yeah.

Pat: And if you're out of the market for two weeks...

Scott: [crosstalk 00:24:14]

Pat: ...you'll be all right.

Scott: Yeah. I just can't believe this is how this works in 2022. Like, mailing...I can't remember the last time I mailed a physical check. And I saw a study one time about, you know, timing the market...

Pat: That's right.

Scott: ...[crosstalk 00:24:32] in the market.

Pat: Yes, I get it.

Scott: [crosstalk 00:24:33]. If you miss the 10 best days, [crosstalk 00:24:38].

Pat: Well, you miss the 10 worst days, too. [inaudible 00:24:39]. Yeah, thank you. You're not timing the market. This is the mechanics of moving the money.

Scott H: It'll only get worse over time as those balances continue to grow.

Pat: Yeah, you're gonna have to eat it, and stay out of the market. And at the end of 10 days, you might be the happiest guy or the saddest guy, but that's just the cost of the transfer, and you wanna do it. Just make it easy for you to manage your money.

Scott H: By the way, if it was an IRA, they can transfer assets from one company to the next. These 40(k)s, because they're all governed by the employer's plan, it's old and clunky.

Scott: Yeah, okay.

Scott H: All righty?

Scott: Good to know.

Scott H: All right, appreciate the call.

Scott: All right, thank you very much.

Scott H: Thanks. Glad you called, Scott. And not that many 34-year-olds have that much going on, I think, financially.

Pat: The ones who work here do.

Scott H: The ones that work here do, and maybe the ones that call us do, for that matter.

Pat: Yes.

Scott H: Anyway.

Pat: I'm optimistic. As an old guy, I look at these kids today and think, "It's gonna be okay." Actually, there's quite a diversion of...you take 30-year-olds, some are on a great career path, like Scott, making good money, others are still baristas.

Scott H: That was the same way when you were 32.

Pat: [inaudible 00:25:57]. We're taking a quick break. We'll be right back.

Announcer: Can't get enough of Allworth's Money Matters? Visit allworthfinancial.com/radio to listen to the Money Matters podcast.

Scott H: Welcome back to Allworth's Money Matters. Scott Hanson...

Pat: And Pat McClain. Thanks for being with us.

Scott H: Before we go back to calls here, if you would like to join us with a call, if you've got something you're pondering, wondering if you should be making some changes in your investment portfolio, if you're on track for retirement, a question about your estate plan or how you should have your beneficiaries, or whatever the case may be with financial questions. Maybe someone's recommending a financial product, and you're trying to figure out if it makes for you or not, we've got a call-in session on Thursday, January 19th, that afternoon or early evening, depending on where you are in the country. If you think you might wanna join us to have a question for us, all's you gotta do is send us an email at questions@moneymatters.com, and just say, "Hey, I got a question on this," and someone will follow back up and set a time to record that.

So Thursday, January 19th is when we're next recording. But again, its super easy to do, questions@moneymatters.com, or you could call 833-99WORTH. Also, on your mobile device, wherever you're getting the podcast, if you click on there, you'll see questions@moneymatters.com, and you can simply click on your phone, and it'll take you there, and put your name in, and we'll get something scheduled.

Pat: Yes. And we'd be...

Scott H: Honored and delighted.

Pat: Well, we think we might be honored and delighted to talk to you. We may be sorely disappointed.

Scott H: There are those calls.

Pat: Yes, where we're like...

Scott H: "How did that person get through?"

Pat: ..."Oh, my god. I like my job most of the time." Okay.

Scott H: Well, hopefully, this next one's not gonna be like that. We're in Texas, talking with Cleveland. Cleveland, you're with Allworth's Money Matters.

Cleveland: Hi, how are you all doing?

Pat: We're great.

Scott H: Good, Cleveland. What can we do for you?

Cleveland: So, I'm a school teacher, and about 12 years ago, you know, we had a [inaudible 00:28:02] insurance representative came in talking about 403(b)s, and so I opened up an account. And, you know, I was kinda just beginning, as far as investing. And, you know, I noticed that, you know, it wasn't earning much. And their website, you know, when I check now, the website doesn't work good, it's very slow to log in.

Pat: What's the name of the insurance company?

Cleveland: It's called Equitable.

Pat: Okay. Well, that's a reputable company. It's Equitable. And how much money do you have in it?

Cleveland: I have something like $5,000. I had stopped contributing to it when I got married about five years ago.

Pat: Are you going to start contributing to it any time soon?

Cleveland: No, I have recently opened a Fidelity account, a Roth account, and I'm gonna plan on contributing it to that now.

Pat: A Roth 401(k), a 403(b), or a Roth IRA?

Cleveland: A Roth IRA.

Scott H: How old are you?

Cleveland: I'm 40.

Scott H: Yeah, I mean, the most important thing is that you're contributing somewhere for retirement, right?

Cleveland: Yeah.

Scott H: That's number one. Number two is where it's gonna go. But number one is more important, saving for retirement. And the interesting thing about 403(b)s and teachers, for whatever crazy reason, our retirement structure in the United States was created by accident. In other words, Congress never sat down and said, "What's the best..." or the Department of Labor never sat down and said, "What's the best way to design these?" They all kinda morphed off different tax codes, like the tax code 401(k), "Oh, wait minute, we can put [inaudible 00:29:50] thing, or a 403(b), we can set it up this way."

And the weird thing about 403(b)s is...so, if you work for a major company or any company that has a 401(k), you never show up in your lunchroom and there's some representative from your 401(k) who gets paid to sign you up in the 401(k). Maybe once a year, they've got some sort of enrollment and someone's educating, but on the 403(b) market, you end up having sales people who go to the schools or the universities, roam the halls, grab people and say, "Hey, let's get you signed up in this 403(b). The downside to that, of course, is the cost of those products tend to be more expensive, but I guess an upside is there's more savings. You tend to see higher savings sometimes.

Pat: That's right, because there's people out promoting it. So, what's your question for us?

Cleveland: So, my question is, I don't like the website, and I went through my emails talking to other 403(b) companies that contacted me throughout the past, and I'm thinking about rolling over money from my 403(b) to another 403(b), but it's a fixed index annuity.

Pat: Well, I don't want you to do that. I do want you to move the money.

Scott H: You've got an account with Fidelity. You could just have Fidelity do it. It's gonna have to be someone approved by your school district.

Pat: He's not putting money into it, though. Are you still a school teacher?

Scott H: Yeah.

Cleveland: Yes.

Pat: Yeah, he is. So it has to be approved.

Scott H: Yeah, you can't be yanking out of that 403(b).

Pat: Yeah, you can't be yanking out of the 403(b).

Scott H: Till you're 59 and a half, or leave the [inaudible 00:31:27].

Pat: So what happens, it can be in the 403(b), but it can be with a different investment company. That's our point. So if I were you, I wouldn't...you don't have any need for an index annuity. Most people don't.

Cleveland: Okay, so, I wasn't sure if I can move a 403(b) to my Fidelity account, my Roth IRA.

Pat: No, you cannot move it to your Roth IRA, but you can most certainly move it to a 403(b) that may be at Fidelity and may not be at Fidelity.

Scott H: If you were my younger brother, I would say, "Here's what you should do. Take a look at..." you gotta look at your school and see what options that are available to you, because it has to... Typically, there's rules for that.

Pat: We know this. How big is the school district? Is it decent size?

Cleveland: Oh, yes. It's a very large [crosstalk 00:32:15].

Pat: Okay, you have Vanguard. We know he's got Vanguard on that system.

Scott H: I don't know.

Pat: If I were a betting man, I would bet...

Scott H: Okay. Well, regardless, you want a low-cost, total stock market index. Move that to the total stock market index, whatever the lowest cost is that you can get within that.

Pat: And most likely, you're gonna have Vanguard. My daughter is a school teacher, and she said...you know, I said, "Do this," and she said, "Well, these people were keep asking me...they keep coming in." I said, "Okay. Vanguard, total stock market," and she said, "Well, does our school district have the Vanguard?" And I'm like, "I can't imagine them not having the Vanguard."

Scott H: And did they have the Vanguard?

Pat: They had the Vanguard. So just...

Scott H: Whether it's Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, it doesn't really...a low-cost ETF, total stock market.

Pat: Total stock market. And then move all $5,000 into there, and any deposits in the future, put it exactly with that one.

Cleveland: Okay, so contact my school or representative to see if I have the Vanguard or...

Scott H: See the list on there, yeah. And you wanna avoid an insurance company. There's no reason to have an insurance company at all.

Pat: Yeah. And so, technically, what you're investing in is what's called a 403(b)(7), because it's a mutual fund and not an annuity wrapper through an...

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:33:36]

Pat: ...insurance company. So, total market, whether it's Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab, any three of those, put the 5 grand in, don't worry about it. You can't spend the money for 19 years anyway. It will go up, it will go down, but at the end, we believe that that's the highest rate of return that you're going to receive for a given amount of risk.

Scott H: For 19 years, yes.

Pat: For 19 years.

Cleveland: All right, that sounds good. I appreciate it. [crosstalk 00:34:02].

Pat: All right. And what grade do you teach?

Cleveland: Ninth...well, really, 10 through 12.

Pat: Wow.

Scott H: God bless you.

Pat: No kidding. Appreciate it.

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:34:14]. You know what's interesting, Pat, before we take...my son, he was looking for some sort of part-time job. He's in pilot school to become a commercial pilot. They told him you can't have a job when you're in the school because it...he doesn't always know his schedule. And so some days, they say, "Oh, you're flying tomorrow at 6:00 a.m.," or something, right? So he doesn't know his schedule.

Pat: So, is he actually in the plane already?

Scott H: Yeah, not like a jumbo jet. [inaudible 00:34:40]. Yeah, you say, "He flew over my house," so I was... So what he says to me...he was looking like some...he was like, "I wish I had some sort of job," and then he says to me, "Hey, I'm thinking about being a substitute school teacher." Which I always thought being a teacher would be great profession for my son, just the way he's wired. He loves kids and stuff.

Pat: Oh.

Scott H: So I think he's...that's what he's [crosstalk 00:35:00].

Pat: And what grade would he...

Scott H: I don't know.

Pat: Your son's pretty mellow.

Scott H: Oh, yeah.

Pat: He would do well in a classroom.

Scott H: Yes, yes, yes, yes.

Pat: Very patient, pretty mellow.

Scott H: Well, all of his summer jobs and stuff were always with kids, growing up.

Pat: And then if you're not working the next day, then you're on the list, and [crosstalk 00:35:21].

Scott H: Yeah, if hasn't got a call-in by 6:00 p.m., he knows he's not in, they could put his name on the list for...

Pat: That makes sense.

Scott H: And then I could say, "God bless you" to my son. You know, he's [crosstalk 00:35:29].

Pat: Is that what we're waiting for?

Scott H: Well, there's a lot of things he's gonna have to do to earn my love and respect.

Pat: Okay.

Scott H: That doesn't come freely in the Hanson household. Just because you're my flesh and blood...

Pat: He'll grow up well adjusted.

Scott H: Love's not for free where I live, Son. You've gotta earn it.

Pat: My dad was always really helpful to me, but just [inaudible 00:35:56] better perspective, I think. I'm reminded of when my daughter was in high school...my oldest daughter, she was a little crazy in high school, and she was completely obsessed with a band called My Chemical Romance. Her whole room was covered with posters with My Chemical Romance. And Valerie and I were getting a little concerned. I remember talking to my dad, I'm like, "But Dad, she's so obsessed with..." He says, "Well, just be glad she's not into chemicals and romance."

Scott H: Okay. But you had purple hair when you were in high school.

Pat: Eh, let's go to this next call.

Scott H: Whatever.

Pat: We're talking to Randy. Randy, you're with Allworth's Money Matters.

Randy: Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my call.

Scott H: Thank you, Randy.

Pat: Surely. What can we do for you?

Randy: After listening to your show and talking with some others, including my employer, I went ahead and retired from the company, about two years earlier than I planned to, to take advantage of the lump sum payout before it was going to drop to [crosstalk 00:36:48].

Pat: Did you call a few weeks back?

Randy: I did not, but I was listening a few weeks back.

Pat: Was that not crazy, how much it was gonna go down in value?

Scott H: So tell us, so you retired because the change in lump sums. Tell us what your lump sum is, ballpark, and compared to what it would have been next year, if you know.

Randy: I do know. It's just south of $1 million, and it was gonna drop by about 16%.

Pat: Right. So 160,000 grand.

Randy: When I was first talking to them, they were telling me it would drop about 24%, but it ended up being about 16%.

Pat: And how long would it have taken you to make that amount of money? So it was $160,000. Was it...

Randy: It would take me about 15 to 16 months.

Pat: Right. And you were gonna retire in two years anyways, then?

Randy: That's my plan.

Pat: That was your plan. And you might find that you actually go back to work, too.

Randy: Well, let's talk about that. The company that I just retired from is hiring me back as a contractor, starting January 3rd.

Pat: I have seen this movie 300 times.

Randy: [crosstalk 00:37:56]

Scott H: Well, the company didn't want you to leave. The company did not...

Randy: No.

Scott H: You and a bunch of your colleagues, right? They did not want you to leave. That's just the way the pension rolls were. It was out of their control.

Randy: Yeah, it was out of everybody's control, actually.

Pat: Yeah. Well, congratulations. I'd like to say congratulations on the retirement, but you didn't really retire. You just decided to get paid from a different organization, doing the same thing.

Randy: Correct. I'll let you know if congratulations is in order in about two years.

Pat: What a great thing for you to do economically. Well, what can we do for you?

Scott H: Although my stepfather retired under similar kind of situations. He worked 17 of the following 20 years. He worked until he was late 70s.

Randy: That's awesome.

Pat: It works. So, what's your question for us?

Randy: So, my question is, this money that I have available to me know, I wanted to know the best way to invest it. I'm not planning to take any distributions over the next two to three years of this money. I just wanted to think what...find out what you guys thought about it.

Pat: How much do you have in your 401(k), IRAs, other savings?

Randy: I have a 401(k) that's approximately $745,000 right now. I have two other IRAs. One is $110,000, and the other is $30,000. And we also have cash in the bank of about $170,000.

Pat: And how is your 401(k) allocated?

Randy: Well, believe it or not, it's in the target date index fund for 2025, so I really don't know the exact [crosstalk 00:39:27].

Pat: Okay. Well, it's got a lot of bond in it.

Randy: It does, [crosstalk 00:39:32].

Pat: But it's probably 50/50. I don't know. You think it's higher than that?

Scott H: It's probably less stock than that. All these target funds are all different.

Pat: Yeah, yeah. And how old are you, Randy?

Randy: I just turned 63, and my wife will turn 61 in January.

Scott H: And what do you owe on your home?

Randy: Our mortgage is $290,000.

Pat: And how much money do you have in the bank?

Randy: $170,000.

Pat: And literally, is it, like, in a online bank, or is it a local bank?

Randy: It's a local bank.

Scott H: And your interest on your mortgage, is it low, and a long-term mortgage? Is it a 30-year mortgage?

Randy: Yes, it is. Thirty-year mortgage is currently at 2.75.

Scott H: Perfect.

Pat: All right, beautiful. And how is your health?

Randy: Well, I wanna believe it's very good.

Pat: And your wife, does she work? Will she be receiving a pension? Does she work outside of the home?

Randy: She does not work outside of the home. She raised four children. She was home most of the time. She was working with the school district and things for a short time.

Pat: All right. I would put this portfolio as probably 50/50 or 60/40.

Scott H: You mean 50% equities, 50% fixed income, maybe a couple of other asset classes.

Pat: Yeah. Either that, or I might even push it a little bit to do 60/40.

Scott H: What do you think you should do?

Randy: Well, I was thinking of rolling it into an IRA at 60/40.

Scott H: Well, that's what you should do, then.

Pat: Yeah. And then...

Scott H: No, I mean, if you're comfortable with that, I think would...I mean, it's kind of a textbook answer, but it's...look, you're 63. You're not gonna touch for a couple of years. When you start to touch it, you're just gonna take, essentially, some interest off it. You're not gonna spend it down. You've got almost $2 million in retirement savings. You're not gonna spend $2 million your first year in retirement.

Pat: Yeah. Even if you take a 4% withdraw, that's $80,000. Add the social security onto it. You have placed your salary on a very conservative withdraw. Assumption. You might choose to spend more your first decade of retirement.

Randy: My wife would love that.

Pat: And look, quite frankly, you're...

Scott H: Well, to that end, Randy, so, it might be...and the plan might be, say, "Hey, let's..." depending on what your wife would like to do, whatever that looks like, let's say it's travel, you might say, "Let's take x-amount of dollars and earmark that for x-number of years of travel." If that's what you want, right? I mean, that's...

Randy: Right.

Scott H: Whatever that is.

Randy: Let me ask you this question. Let me ask you this, the 401(k) I believe can stay right where it is. I don't have to touch that. But should I?

Pat: Yeah, I don't like those...

Randy: Should I [crosstalk 00:42:15] lump sum money?

Pat: [crosstalk 00:42:17]

Scott H: [crosstalk 00:42:17]. If you've got $20,000, and you're young, then your target date works fine. When you're this...

Pat: Let me tell you why. What happens is this target date fund picks a date, and every year, it gets more conservative, based upon the year you're gonna retire, regardless of what the market conditions are at any point in time.

Scott H: And, like, this year, the fixed income might all have been in a bond index, which was not the place to be this year, in fixed income.

Pat: So there's not...I mean, you know, it's the happy meal of investing, if you will. It's easy, it's simple to order, there's not a lot of thought to go into it, but it's...

Scott H: And it beats a lot of alternatives, [inaudible 00:42:59] making wrong choices.

Pat: That's right. There's clearly a place for it. But it's not where you should have any substantial amount of money. I don't own one, right? But I know Scott's daughter has $5,000 or $10,000 in one, right?

Scott H: She's got [inaudible 00:43:16] one with Vanguard in a custodial account, and she's now turning 27. I've been trying to get it out of my name. I call Vanguard, I'm on hold for 25 minutes, I send a letter that we both sign, they send me an email that you gotta call this other number again. I called the number, and they say, "No, your daughter has to..." So, yes. You're trying to get it out of there, because it's grown...it's more than 10,000 bucks now.

Pat: Yeah, so you should not... And if you're uncomfortable managing your own portfolio, get a professional manager to do it. One other thing, this money that you have at a local bank, you should drop it into a bank like a Synchrony or just go to bankrate.com.

Scott H: It didn't make much difference five months ago, but it makes a tremendous difference today.

Pat: It makes all kinds of difference today, to the tune of...on this account, to the tune of 5 grand a year, 4500. In fact, I mean, right now, we are actually...at Allworth, we're actually looking at products where we have the ability to place money into the highest CD in the country, regardless of where it's at. It's something that we've...because it didn't matter too much a year, or two, or three years ago, but it matters a lot now, a lot. So you should have very, very little money in a local bank. It should be in these banker to brokered CDs, or money market funds. So if you go to bankrate.com and you look at the thing, and it will go either Synchrony or Ally. Whatever the highest money market rate is, you just wanna move it into there, and it should be anywhere between 2.75% and 3.25%, which is significant amount of money on this 175 grand in the bank.

Randy: Beautiful.

Pat: Yeah. And then...

Randy: So, let me...can I go back to the 401(k) real quick?

Pat: Sure, sir.

Randy: Should I lump those two together, or should I just change the allocation on the 401(k)?

Pat: Nope. I'd have it all one account. All goes into an IRA, one account, one investment where you're actually looking at it, you're...

Scott H: Not one investment. One account, you can have a...you might have [inaudible 00:45:17] different investments.

Pat: Correct. One investment account where there's a model, and you pick a 60/40, and you're managing to that 60/40. So if the market goes up, you're selling stocks and you're buying bonds. If the market goes down...

Scott H: Now, when you say 60/40, you don't necessarily mean 60%, one [inaudible 00:45:34] equity is 40%.

Pat: Correct. You'll have 13 or 14 different holdings in there to get to that. And this may be something that you're uncomfortable doing yourself. Hire an investment advisor to do it for you and walk you through that process. But it should not be in the target date fund, and there's no reason to leave it in your 401(k).

Scott H: And we wish you well, Randy. And congrats on...well, I guess it was retirement, and now you're back working right after the holidays. But maybe you'll get a couple weeks off over Christmas. Appreciate the call.

Pat: Isn't that funny? He listened to the show and recognized that this...

Scott H: Well, he might have heard it other places too, but yes, we talked about that. We had a caller...well, we talked about it a couple months ago, then we had a caller [crosstalk 00:46:21] change in interest rates.

Pat: Let's talk with Tina. Tina, you're with Allworth's Money Matters.

Tina: Hi. I have a question on converting to Roth. I heard you guys the other day talking to somebody. I was all set to, like, think it was a good idea, and then you kinda talked somebody out of it the other day.

Scott H: Well, we might talk you into it. It all depends.

Tina: [crosstalk 00:46:42]

Pat: We might just give our opinion, and you decide for yourself.

Scott H: That's right.

Tina: Well, so, one of the reasons I'm considering it is because I don't have any real income this year.

Pat: Perfect.

Tina: Yeah, exactly. And so I thought it would be good to [crosstalk 00:47:02].

Pat: Why do you have no income this year? You in school, or raising a kid or...long COVID?

Tina: No, I...2020, I got laid off, got a severance and all that. And it was perfect timing because I had my grandbaby, so I watched my grandbaby for the past couple of years instead of working.

Scott H: Okay, that makes sense.

Pat: And how much money do you have in your IRA?

Tina: So, like, IRA 401?

Pat: Yeah, all that.

Tina: And including Roth, or not including?

Pat: Not including Roth.

Tina: Probably, like, $600,000.

Pat: Okay. And what do you have in Roth?

Tina: About $100,000.

Pat: And how much money do you have in cash?

Tina: Probably about $350,000.

Scott H: Oh, this was designed for you. This is the perfect scenario. And what was your income for the year?

Tina: When I was working?

Scott H: No, for 2022, what would your income be?

Tina: Oh, 2022.

Scott H: You got social security or anything?

Tina: No. No, I'm not old enough for that. I'm 58.

Pat: I knew that you weren't old enough for that. Scott, come on.

Scott H: [inaudible 00:48:19] see her.

Pat: Well, you could tell by her voice.

Scott H: She said she's a grandma.

Pat: Okay. Well, okay. I mean, biologically, you could be a grandma at the age of 19 or 20. So, we're not going there. That would be really strange.

Scott H: That would be really odd.

Pat: That would be odd.

Scott H: [inaudible 00:48:33]

Pat: So, any income for 2022?

Tina: Not really, I mean, not other than, like, dividends and a few things like that, so not much.

Pat: This is perfect for you. You should convert. Scott's gonna get to a number here. He's looking it up right now. But this will be in the tens of thousands of dollars that you should convert from your IRA to the Roth IRA.

Tina: Well, see, that's another reason I haven't done it yet is because I couldn't decide if I should try to stay under the $80,000 or under the $40,000, or whatever [inaudible 00:49:09].

Scott H: The tax rate goes from 12% to 22%.

Tina: Twenty-two, yeah.

Pat: I would stay in that 12% bracket. What did you earn from your old job? When you were working, how much money did you earn a year?

Tina: $110,000.

Pat: Yeah, but are you going back to work?

Tina: Eventually, yeah.

Scott H: Even if you did [crosstalk 00:49:30] retirement...

Pat: [crosstalk 00:49:30]

Scott H: ...I would still...I personally would not convert more and push myself into a higher tax bracket. I would do it right after that 12% level.

Pat: And what is that amount, Scott?

Scott H: I don't know, because I couldn't figure out [inaudible 00:49:43].

Tina: Yeah, it's up to like 40%, so...

Scott H: Plus the standard deduction.

Tina: Probably [crosstalk 00:49:50].

Scott H: Plus the standard deduction.

Tina: Right, right, yeah. Yeah.

Scott H: So it's 50% something.

Pat: Yeah, you wanna do all of it.

Tina: Okay.

Pat: Every dime.

Scott H: But I wouldn't go into that next...I wouldn't bother paying tax at a 22% rate.

Tina: Okay. That's what I was kind of leaning towards, too, is just sticking with the lowest.

Pat: Only because...but if she said, "Oh, I'm certain I'm gonna go back to work, and I make $300,000 a year," we'd probably have to [crosstalk 00:50:15].

Scott H: Yeah, or if she said she had $3 million in a retirement account, it would be different. But I'm thinking you're probably gonna retire in a handful of years, take income from...the majority of your income, at that point, will be in a...

Pat: Twelve percent.

Scott H: Yeah, 12% tax bracket.

Pat: Yeah. So that's what...yep, you wanna go to the...keep it in the 12%, and let her rip. And perfect design for you. We might have talked someone out of it a couple weeks ago. Oh, I remember, they had all kinds of money, didn't they?

Tina: Yeah, they did.

Pat: Yeah, yeah. But for you, it's perfect. Plus, because you have the money to actually pay the tax on the conversion.

Tina: Correct, yeah.

Pat: All the money outside. So there you go.

Scott H: And yeah, that rate's at $41,774, but that doesn't take into consideration your standard deduction, which is about like $10,000 or $11,000, or something like that.

Pat: So, in the low 50s.

Scott H: Oh, it's $12, 950. It's 13 grand for standard deductions, so about 55 grand.

Pat: [inaudible 00:51:10]. Anyway, appreciate the call, Tina.

Tina: Perfect.

Scott H: Thanks.

Tina: Okay, thank you so much.

Pat: Enjoy the time with your grandchild.

Tina: Yes, and I just had my second, so that's why I don't know when I'm going back to work.

Scott H: Oh, maybe you're not going back to work.

Pat: What a blessing.

Tina: Yes, [crosstalk 00:51:25].

Pat: Wonder what I'll if I have grandkids. Would I quit? I don't know.

Scott H: Well, I hope not for a while, then. Pat and I have worked together for about 30-some years, and it's working out pretty well.

Pat: [crosstalk 00:51:34] call one day, "Congratulations on the grandkid." I'd quit, Scott.

Scott H: Well, yeah. Anyway. It's been great having everyone here with us today, and hope everyone's lined up for a great Christmas season. It is the time of year, by the way, you still have a few business days to get some things done that are gonna impact your tax calendar for this year, because once this year is over, things such as a Roth, or maybe you're self-employed, and you've got large income, you can establish a Solo (k) this year. You've got until next year to fund the thing, but you have to have it set up by the end of this year. There's a handful of items like that. You'll wanna check them out. Anyway, we're out of time. It's been great being here with you. This has been Allworth's Money Matters.

Announcer: This program has been brought to you by Allworth Financial, a registered investment advisory firm. Any ideas presented during this program are not intended to provide specific financial advice. You should consult your own financial advisor, tax consultant, or estate planning attorney to conduct your own due diligence.